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provided by:
| Comparisons | |||||
| Budget History |
| General Fund |
| Appropriations |
| Operating Spending |
| Outlays |
| Jobs |
| Payroll |
| Budget Shifting |
3.4 Total State Outlays
If we want to know how much govenment is costing us or how much is actually being spent, then outlays is a better measure than appropriations. Appropriations includes not only spending but also transfers from one government account to another. U.S. Department of Commerce data shows the history of total state government outlays (appropriations that actually hit the street). (What is included in outlays?)
Here we look first at state government spending and then at state and local government spending combined.
(See also the Comparison to the U.S. average.)
STATE GOVERNMENT SPENDING
Total state government outlays as reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce have continued to grow.
| Total
Alaska State Government Outlays (million $) |
|
|
1965
|
$194
|
|
1966
|
$194
|
|
1967
|
$261
|
|
1968
|
$273
|
|
1969
|
$272
|
|
1970 |
$329
|
|
1971
|
$476
|
|
1972
|
$566
|
|
1973
|
$593
|
|
1974
|
$651
|
|
1975
|
$774
|
|
1976
|
$944
|
|
1977
|
$995
|
|
1978
|
$1,158
|
|
1979
|
$1,346
|
|
1980 |
$1,929
|
|
1981
|
$2,422
|
|
1982
|
$3,032
|
|
1983
|
$3,422
|
|
1984
|
$3,631
|
|
1985
|
$4,603
|
|
1986
|
$3,881
|
|
1987
|
$4,027
|
|
1988
|
$3,870
|
|
1989
|
$4,100
|
|
1990 |
$ 4,284
|
|
1991
|
$ 4,493
|
|
1992
|
$ 4,788
|
|
1993
|
$ 4,934
|
|
1994
|
$ 5,256
|
|
1995
|
$ 5,047
|
|
1996
|
$ 5,105
|
|
1997
|
$ 5,160
|
|
1998
|
$ 5,230
|
|
1999
|
$5,572
|
2000 |
$5,972 |
| Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances. | |
If we net out the Permanent Fund dividend, which the federal government includes in its definition of state government outlays, we see that there was a break in the growth of state outlays in 1994 and that they have been flat since that time.
| Alaska
State Government Outlays—& Outlays Net of PF Dividend (million $) |
||
|
FY
|
Total
Outlays
|
Outlays
Net Dividend
|
|---|---|---|
|
1965
|
$194
|
$194
|
|
1966
|
$194
|
$194
|
|
1967
|
$261
|
$261
|
|
1968
|
$273
|
$273
|
|
1969
|
$272
|
$272
|
|
1970
|
$329
|
$329
|
|
1971
|
$476
|
$476
|
|
1972
|
$566
|
$566
|
|
1973
|
$593
|
$593
|
|
1974
|
$651
|
$651
|
|
1975
|
$774
|
$774
|
|
1976
|
$944
|
$944
|
|
1977
|
$995
|
$995
|
|
1978
|
$1,158
|
$1,158
|
|
1979
|
$1,346
|
$1,346
|
|
1980
|
$1,929
|
$1,929
|
|
1981
|
$2,422
|
$2,422
|
|
1982
|
$3,032
|
$2,532
|
|
1983
|
$3,422
|
$3,358
|
|
1984
|
$3,631
|
$3,456
|
|
1985
|
$4,603
|
$4,386
|
|
1986
|
$3,881
|
$3,577
|
|
1987
|
$4,027
|
$3,636
|
|
1988
|
$3,870
|
$3,445
|
|
1989
|
$4,100
|
$3,640
|
|
1990
|
$ 4,284
|
$3,797
|
|
1991
|
$4,493
|
$4,004
|
|
1992
|
$4,788
|
$4,300
|
|
1993
|
$4,934
|
$4,402
|
|
1994
|
$5,256
|
$4,701
|
|
1995
|
$5,047
|
$4,482
|
|
1996
|
$5,105
|
$4,462
|
|
1997
|
$5,160
|
$4,413
|
|
1998
|
$5,230
|
$4,337
|
|
1999
|
$5,572
|
$4,526
|
2000 |
$5,972 |
$4,780 |
| Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER. | ||
Furthermore, if we subtract federal grants from outlays, we see that "Outlays from Own Sources" has been growing more slowly than total outlays.
|
Alaska
State Government Outlays from Own Sources— |
||
|
FY
|
Total
Outlays
|
Outlays
from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)
|
|---|---|---|
|
1965
|
$194
|
$85
|
|
1966
|
$194
|
$97
|
|
1967
|
$261
|
$114
|
|
1968
|
$273
|
$159
|
|
1969
|
$272
|
$166
|
|
1970
|
$329
|
$226
|
|
1971
|
$476
|
$326
|
|
1972
|
$566
|
$398
|
|
1973
|
$593
|
$404
|
|
1974
|
$651
|
$463
|
|
1975
|
$774
|
$539
|
|
1976
|
$944
|
$663
|
|
1977
|
$995
|
$722
|
|
1978
|
$1,158
|
$863
|
|
1979
|
$1,346
|
$1,063
|
|
1980
|
$1,929
|
$1,550
|
|
1981
|
$2,422
|
$2,028
|
|
1982
|
$3,032
|
$2,166
|
|
1983
|
$3,422
|
$2,973
|
|
1984
|
$3,631
|
$3,046
|
|
1985
|
$4,603
|
$3,990
|
|
1986
|
$3,881
|
$3,163
|
|
1987
|
$4,027
|
$3,181
|
|
1988
|
$3,870
|
$2,704
|
|
1999
|
$4,100
|
$3,038
|
|
1990
|
$4,284
|
$3,174
|
|
1991
|
$4,493
|
$3,297
|
|
1992
|
$4,788
|
$3,427
|
|
1993
|
$4,934
|
$3,497
|
|
1994
|
$5,256
|
$3,781
|
|
1995
|
$5,047
|
$3,502
|
|
1996
|
$5,105
|
$3,445
|
|
1997
|
$5,160
|
$3,371
|
|
1998
|
$5,230
|
$3,257
|
|
1999
|
$5,572
|
$3,304
|
2000 |
$5,972 |
$3,598 |
| Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER. | ||
If outlays in early years are converted to 1998 purchasing power (real 1998 $), we see that outlays excluding the Permanent Fund dividend have been trending downward, as have been outlays from own sources (net of the dividend and outlays financed by federal grants).
| Alaska
State Government Outlays (millions of 1998 $) |
||||
|
FY
|
Outlays
from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)
|
Outlays
Net Dividend
|
Total
Outlays
|
Anchorage Consumer Price Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1965
|
$343
|
$787
|
$787
|
36.2
|
|
1966
|
$383
|
$764
|
$764
|
37.2
|
|
1967
|
$438
|
$1,001
|
$1,001
|
38.2
|
|
1968
|
$556
|
$1,020
|
$1,020
|
39.1
|
| 1969 |
$497
|
$977
|
$977
|
40.7
|
|
1970
|
$786
|
$1,146
|
$1,146
|
42
|
|
1971
|
$1,108
|
$1,619
|
$1,619
|
43
|
|
1972
|
$1,295
|
$1,841
|
$1,841
|
45
|
|
1973
|
$1,286
|
$1,887
|
$1,887
|
46
|
|
1974
|
$1,329
|
$1,869
|
$1,869
|
51
|
|
1975
|
$1,337
|
$1,919
|
$1,919
|
59
|
|
1976
|
$1,540
|
$2,192
|
$2,192
|
63
|
|
1977
|
$1,575
|
$2,173
|
$2,173
|
67
|
|
1978
|
$1,753
|
$2,353
|
$2,353
|
72
|
| 1979 |
$1,969
|
$2,493
|
$2,493
|
79
|
|
1980
|
$2,637
|
$3,281
|
$3,281
|
86
|
|
1981
|
$3,190
|
$3,809
|
$3,809
|
93
|
|
1982
|
$3,234
|
$3,780
|
$4,526
|
98
|
|
1983
|
$4,393
|
$4,963
|
$5,057
|
99
|
|
1984
|
$4,326
|
$4,908
|
$5,157
|
103
|
|
1985
|
$5,506
|
$6,054
|
$6,354
|
106
|
|
1986
|
$4,285
|
$4,846
|
$5,257
|
108
|
|
1987
|
$4,268
|
$4,926
|
$5,455
|
108
|
|
1988
|
$3,663
|
$4,667
|
$5,242
|
108
|
| 1989 |
$4,004
|
$4,798
|
$5,405
|
111 |
|
1990
|
$ 3,922
|
$4,692
|
$5,294
|
118.4
|
|
1991
|
$ 3,897
|
$4,731
|
$5,310
|
123.8
|
|
1992
|
$ 4,031
|
$4,915
|
$5,473
|
128
|
|
1993
|
$ 3,876
|
$4,879
|
$5,468
|
132
|
|
1994
|
$ 4,104
|
$5,102
|
$5,705
|
134.8
|
|
1995
|
$ 3,699
|
$4,735
|
$5,332
|
138.5
|
|
1996
|
$ 3,539
|
$4,584
|
$5,244
|
142.4
|
|
1997
|
$ 3,413
|
$4,468
|
$5,225
|
144.5
|
|
1998
|
$ 3,257
|
$4,337
|
$5,230
|
146.3
|
| 1999 | $3,268 | $4,478 | $5,512 | 147.9 |
2000 |
$3,484 |
$4,647 |
$5,782 |
- |
| Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER. | ||||
The trend in real per capita outlays has been downward. Even including the Permanent Fund dividend, which has been increasing, real per capita outlays have been falling since the late 1980s.
| Alaska
State Government Per Capita Outlays (1998 $) |
||||
|
|
Outlays
from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)
|
Outlays
Net Dividend
|
Total
Outlays
|
Anchorage
Consumer Price Index
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1965
|
$1,293
|
$2,963
|
$2,963
|
36.2
|
|
1966
|
$1,411
|
$2,813
|
$2,813
|
37.2
|
|
1967
|
$1,575
|
$3,602
|
$3,602
|
38.2
|
|
1968
|
$1,950
|
$3,508
|
$3,508
|
39.1
|
| 1969 |
$2,027
|
$3,315
|
$3,315
|
40.7
|
|
1970
|
$2,596
|
$3,787
|
$3,787
|
42
|
|
1971
|
$3,512
|
$5,130
|
$5,130
|
43
|
|
1972
|
$3,992
|
$5,675
|
$5,675
|
45
|
|
1973
|
$2,890
|
$5,708
|
$5,708
|
46
|
|
1974
|
$2,898
|
$5,479
|
$5,479
|
51
|
|
1975
|
$3,554
|
$4,101
|
$4,101
|
59
|
|
1976
|
$3,841
|
$5,468
|
$5,468
|
63
|
|
1977
|
$3,905
|
$5,387
|
$5,387
|
67
|
|
1978
|
$4,332
|
$5,813
|
$5,813
|
72
|
| 1979 |
$4,888
|
$6,190
|
$6,190
|
79
|
|
1980
|
$6,563
|
$8,165
|
$8,165
|
86
|
|
1981
|
$7,622
|
$9,103
|
$9,103
|
93
|
|
1982
|
$7,192
|
$8,407
|
$10,067
|
98
|
|
1983
|
$8,995
|
$10,161
|
$10,355
|
99
|
|
1984
|
$8,421
|
$9,555
|
$10,039
|
103
|
|
1985
|
$10,341
|
$11,369
|
$11,932
|
106
|
|
1986
|
$7,873
|
$8,903
|
$9,658
|
108
|
|
1987
|
$7,915
|
$9,134
|
$10,116
|
108
|
|
1988
|
$6,759
|
$8,611
|
$9,672
|
108
|
| 1989 |
$7,318
|
$8,769
|
$9,877 | 111 |
|
1990
|
$7,131
|
$8,530
|
$9,625
|
118.4
|
|
1991
|
$7,045
|
$8,554
|
$9,600
|
123.8
|
|
1992
|
$7,084
|
$8,636
|
$9,617
|
128
|
|
1993
|
$6,607
|
$8,316
|
$9,321
|
132
|
|
1994
|
$6,876
|
$8,548
|
$9,558
|
134.8
|
|
1995
|
$6,158
|
$7,881
|
$8,875
|
138.5
|
|
1996
|
$5,882
|
$7,619
|
$8,717
|
142.4
|
|
1997
|
$5,641
|
$7,385
|
$8,635
|
144.5
|
|
1998
|
$5,305
|
$7,064
|
$8,518
|
146.3
|
| 1999 | $5,272 | $7,223 | $8,890 | 147.9 |
2000 |
$5,556 |
$7,412 |
$9,222 |
- |
| Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER. | ||||
State outlays as a share of personal income have been decreasing, although they are still much higher than at any time before the "petrodollar" boom. One line of reasoning suggests that there should be a stable relationship between public spending and personal income, reflecting a balance between public and private consumption.
| Outlays as a Percentage of Personal Income | ||||
|
|
Outlays
from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)
|
Outlays
Net Dividend
|
Total
Outlays
|
Personal
Income (million $)
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1965
|
9%
|
21%
|
21%
|
$905
|
|
1966
|
10%
|
20%
|
20%
|
$982
|
|
1967
|
11%
|
24%
|
24%
|
$1,086
|
|
1968
|
13%
|
23%
|
23%
|
$1,182
|
| 1969 |
12%
|
19%
|
19%
|
$1,406
|
|
1970
|
14%
|
21%
|
21%
|
$1,595
|
|
1971
|
18%
|
27%
|
27%
|
$1,766
|
|
1972
|
21%
|
29%
|
29%
|
$1,939
|
|
1973
|
18%
|
26%
|
26%
|
$2,266
|
|
1974
|
17%
|
23%
|
23%
|
$2,795
|
|
1975
|
14%
|
20%
|
20%
|
$3,932
|
|
1976
|
14%
|
20%
|
20%
|
$4,736
|
|
1977
|
15%
|
20%
|
20%
|
$4,906
|
|
1978
|
17%
|
23%
|
23%
|
$5,013
|
| 1979 |
20%
|
25%
|
25%
|
$5,328
|
|
1980
|
26%
|
32%
|
32%
|
$6,002
|
|
1981
|
29%
|
35%
|
35%
|
$6,902
|
|
1982
|
26%
|
31%
|
37%
|
$8,263
|
|
1983
|
32%
|
36%
|
37%
|
$9,302
|
|
1984
|
31%
|
35%
|
36%
|
$9,958
|
|
1985
|
37%
|
41%
|
43%
|
$10,756
|
|
1986
|
30%
|
33%
|
36%
|
$10,721
|
|
1987
|
30%
|
35%
|
39%
|
$10,427
|
|
1988
|
25%
|
32%
|
36%
|
$10,773
|
| 1989 |
26%
|
31%
|
35% | $11,778 |
|
1990
|
25%
|
30%
|
34%
|
$12,566
|
|
1991
|
25%
|
30%
|
34%
|
$13,243
|
|
1992
|
25%
|
31%
|
34%
|
$14,039
|
|
1993
|
24%
|
30%
|
33%
|
$14,789
|
|
1994
|
25%
|
31%
|
35%
|
$15,168
|
|
1995
|
23%
|
29%
|
33%
|
$15,513
|
|
1996
|
22%
|
28%
|
32%
|
$15,762
|
|
1997
|
21%
|
27%
|
31%
|
$16,433
|
|
1998
|
19%
|
25%
|
31%
|
$17,124
|
| 1999 | 21% | 26% | 32% | $17,670 |
| Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances and Bureau of Economic Analysis, and ISER. | ||||
State outlays have increased as a share of gross state product—value added. We can think of gross product as the tax base for the state.
| Outlays as a Percentage of Gross State Product | ||||
|
FY
|
Outlays
from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)
|
Outlays
Net Dividend
|
Total
Outlays
|
Gross
State Product (million $)
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1965
|
7%
|
15%
|
15%
|
$1,302
|
|
1966
|
7%
|
14%
|
14%
|
$1,390
|
|
1967
|
8%
|
18%
|
18%
|
$1,486
|
|
1968
|
9%
|
16%
|
16%
|
$1,693
|
| 1969 |
9%
|
15%
|
15%
|
$1,845
|
|
1970
|
10%
|
15%
|
15%
|
$2,165
|
|
1971
|
14%
|
20%
|
20%
|
$2,389
|
|
1972
|
15%
|
22%
|
22%
|
$2,613
|
|
1973
|
14%
|
20%
|
20%
|
$2,928
|
|
1974
|
12%
|
17%
|
17%
|
$3,854
|
|
1975
|
9%
|
13%
|
13%
|
$6,091
|
|
1976
|
9%
|
12%
|
12%
|
$7,615
|
|
1977
|
9%
|
12%
|
12%
|
$8,175
|
|
1978
|
8%
|
10%
|
10%
|
$11,075
|
| 1979 |
7%
|
9%
|
9%
|
$14,778
|
|
1980
|
8%
|
10%
|
10%
|
$20,276
|
|
1981
|
8%
|
9%
|
9%
|
$25,522
|
|
1982
|
9%
|
10%
|
12%
|
$25,430
|
|
1983
|
12%
|
13%
|
13%
|
$25,503
|
|
1984
|
12%
|
13%
|
14%
|
$26,494
|
|
1985
|
15%
|
16%
|
17%
|
$26,970
|
|
1986
|
17%
|
19%
|
21%
|
$18,851
|
|
1987
|
14%
|
17%
|
||