The Institute of Social & Economic Research

The Alaska Citizen's Guide to the Budget

Financial Assistance
provided by:

Fiscal Policy Council of Alaska

Comparisons
Budget History
General Fund
Appropriations
Operating Spending
Outlays
Jobs
Payroll
Budget Shifting

 

 

3. Budget History

3.4 Total State Outlays

If we want to know how much govenment is costing us or how much is actually being spent, then outlays is a better measure than appropriations. Appropriations includes not only spending but also transfers from one government account to another. U.S. Department of Commerce data shows the history of total state government outlays (appropriations that actually hit the street). (What is included in outlays?)

Here we look first at state government spending and then at state and local government spending combined.

(See also the Comparison to the U.S. average.)

STATE GOVERNMENT SPENDING

Total state government outlays as reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce have continued to grow.

Total Alaska State Government Outlays
(million $)
1965
$194
1966
$194
1967
$261
1968
$273
1969
$272

1970

$329
1971
$476
1972
$566
1973
$593
1974
$651
1975
$774
1976
$944
1977
$995
1978
$1,158
1979
$1,346

1980

$1,929
1981
$2,422
1982
$3,032
1983
$3,422
1984
$3,631
1985
$4,603
1986
$3,881
1987
$4,027
1988
$3,870
1989
$4,100

1990

$ 4,284
1991
$ 4,493
1992
$ 4,788
1993
$ 4,934
1994
$ 5,256
1995
$ 5,047
1996
$ 5,105
1997
$ 5,160
1998
$ 5,230
1999
$5,572
2000
$5,972
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances.

If we net out the Permanent Fund dividend, which the federal government includes in its definition of state government outlays, we see that there was a break in the growth of state outlays in 1994 and that they have been flat since that time.

Alaska State Government Outlays—& Outlays
Net of PF Dividend

(million $)
FY
Total Outlays
Outlays Net Dividend
1965
$194
$194
1966
$194
$194
1967
$261
$261
1968
$273
$273
1969
$272
$272
1970
$329
$329
1971
$476
$476
1972
$566
$566
1973
$593
$593
1974
$651
$651
1975
$774
$774
1976
$944
$944
1977
$995
$995
1978
$1,158
$1,158
1979
$1,346
$1,346
1980
$1,929
$1,929
1981
$2,422
$2,422
1982
$3,032
$2,532
1983
$3,422
$3,358
1984
$3,631
$3,456
1985
$4,603
$4,386
1986
$3,881
$3,577
1987
$4,027
$3,636
1988
$3,870
$3,445
1989
$4,100
$3,640
1990
$ 4,284
$3,797
1991
$4,493
$4,004
1992
$4,788
$4,300
1993
$4,934
$4,402
1994
$5,256
$4,701
1995
$5,047
$4,482
1996
$5,105
$4,462
1997
$5,160
$4,413
1998
$5,230
$4,337
1999
$5,572
$4,526
2000
$5,972
$4,780
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER.

Furthermore, if we subtract federal grants from outlays, we see that "Outlays from Own Sources" has been growing more slowly than total outlays.

Alaska State Government Outlays from Own Sources—
Net of PF Dividend & Federal Grants

(million $)

FY
Total Outlays
Outlays from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)
1965
$194
$85
1966
$194
$97
1967
$261
$114
1968
$273
$159
1969
$272
$166
1970
$329
$226
1971
$476
$326
1972
$566
$398
1973
$593
$404
1974
$651
$463
1975
$774
$539
1976
$944
$663
1977
$995
$722
1978
$1,158
$863
1979
$1,346
$1,063
1980
$1,929
$1,550
1981
$2,422
$2,028
1982
$3,032
$2,166
1983
$3,422
$2,973
1984
$3,631
$3,046
1985
$4,603
$3,990
1986
$3,881
$3,163
1987
$4,027
$3,181
1988
$3,870
$2,704
1999
$4,100
$3,038
1990
$4,284
$3,174
1991
$4,493
$3,297
1992
$4,788
$3,427
1993
$4,934
$3,497
1994
$5,256
$3,781
1995
$5,047
$3,502
1996
$5,105
$3,445
1997
$5,160
$3,371
1998
$5,230
$3,257
1999
$5,572
$3,304
2000
$5,972
$3,598
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER.

If outlays in early years are converted to 1998 purchasing power (real 1998 $), we see that outlays excluding the Permanent Fund dividend have been trending downward, as have been outlays from own sources (net of the dividend and outlays financed by federal grants).

Alaska State Government Outlays
(millions of 1998 $)
FY
Outlays from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)
Outlays Net Dividend
Total Outlays

Anchorage Consumer Price Index

1965
$343
$787
$787
36.2
1966
$383
$764
$764
37.2
1967
$438
$1,001
$1,001
38.2
1968
$556
$1,020
$1,020
39.1
1969
$497
$977
$977
40.7
1970
$786
$1,146
$1,146
42
1971
$1,108
$1,619
$1,619
43
1972
$1,295
$1,841
$1,841
45
1973
$1,286
$1,887
$1,887
46
1974
$1,329
$1,869
$1,869
51
1975
$1,337
$1,919
$1,919
59
1976
$1,540
$2,192
$2,192
63
1977
$1,575
$2,173
$2,173
67
1978
$1,753
$2,353
$2,353
72
1979
$1,969
$2,493
$2,493
79
1980
$2,637
$3,281
$3,281
86
1981
$3,190
$3,809
$3,809
93
1982
$3,234
$3,780
$4,526
98
1983
$4,393
$4,963
$5,057
99
1984
$4,326
$4,908
$5,157
103
1985
$5,506
$6,054
$6,354
106
1986
$4,285
$4,846
$5,257
108
1987
$4,268
$4,926
$5,455
108
1988
$3,663
$4,667
$5,242
108
1989
$4,004
$4,798
$5,405
111
1990
$ 3,922
$4,692
$5,294
118.4
1991
$ 3,897
$4,731
$5,310
123.8
1992
$ 4,031
$4,915
$5,473
128
1993
$ 3,876
$4,879
$5,468
132
1994
$ 4,104
$5,102
$5,705
134.8
1995
$ 3,699
$4,735
$5,332
138.5
1996
$ 3,539
$4,584
$5,244
142.4
1997
$ 3,413
$4,468
$5,225
144.5
1998
$ 3,257
$4,337
$5,230
146.3
1999 $3,268 $4,478 $5,512 147.9
2000
$3,484
$4,647
$5,782
-
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER.

The trend in real per capita outlays has been downward. Even including the Permanent Fund dividend, which has been increasing, real per capita outlays have been falling since the late 1980s.

Alaska State Government
Per Capita Outlays
(1998 $)
 
Outlays from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)
Outlays Net Dividend
Total Outlays
Anchorage Consumer Price Index
1965
$1,293
$2,963
$2,963
36.2
1966
$1,411
$2,813
$2,813
37.2
1967
$1,575
$3,602
$3,602
38.2
1968
$1,950
$3,508
$3,508
39.1
1969
$2,027
$3,315
$3,315
40.7
1970
$2,596
$3,787
$3,787
42
1971
$3,512
$5,130
$5,130
43
1972
$3,992
$5,675
$5,675
45
1973
$2,890
$5,708
$5,708
46
1974
$2,898
$5,479
$5,479
51
1975
$3,554
$4,101
$4,101
59
1976
$3,841
$5,468
$5,468
63
1977
$3,905
$5,387
$5,387
67
1978
$4,332
$5,813
$5,813
72
1979
$4,888
$6,190
$6,190
79
1980
$6,563
$8,165
$8,165
86
1981
$7,622
$9,103
$9,103
93
1982
$7,192
$8,407
$10,067
98
1983
$8,995
$10,161
$10,355
99
1984
$8,421
$9,555
$10,039
103
1985
$10,341
$11,369
$11,932
106
1986
$7,873
$8,903
$9,658
108
1987
$7,915
$9,134
$10,116
108
1988
$6,759
$8,611
$9,672
108
1989
$7,318
$8,769
$9,877 111
1990
$7,131
$8,530
$9,625
118.4
1991
$7,045
$8,554
$9,600
123.8
1992
$7,084
$8,636
$9,617
128
1993
$6,607
$8,316
$9,321
132
1994
$6,876
$8,548
$9,558
134.8
1995
$6,158
$7,881
$8,875
138.5
1996
$5,882
$7,619
$8,717
142.4
1997
$5,641
$7,385
$8,635
144.5
1998
$5,305
$7,064
$8,518
146.3
1999 $5,272 $7,223 $8,890 147.9
2000
$5,556
$7,412
$9,222
-
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER.

State outlays as a share of personal income have been decreasing, although they are still much higher than at any time before the "petrodollar" boom. One line of reasoning suggests that there should be a stable relationship between public spending and personal income, reflecting a balance between public and private consumption.

Outlays as a Percentage of Personal Income
 
Outlays from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)
Outlays Net Dividend
Total Outlays
Personal Income (million $)
1965
9%
21%
21%
$905
1966
10%
20%
20%
$982
1967
11%
24%
24%
$1,086
1968
13%
23%
23%
$1,182
1969
12%
19%
19%
$1,406
1970
14%
21%
21%
$1,595
1971
18%
27%
27%
$1,766
1972
21%
29%
29%
$1,939
1973
18%
26%
26%
$2,266
1974
17%
23%
23%
$2,795
1975
14%
20%
20%
$3,932
1976
14%
20%
20%
$4,736
1977
15%
20%
20%
$4,906
1978
17%
23%
23%
$5,013
1979
20%
25%
25%
$5,328
1980
26%
32%
32%
$6,002
1981
29%
35%
35%
$6,902
1982
26%
31%
37%
$8,263
1983
32%
36%
37%
$9,302
1984
31%
35%
36%
$9,958
1985
37%
41%
43%
$10,756
1986
30%
33%
36%
$10,721
1987
30%
35%
39%
$10,427
1988
25%
32%
36%
$10,773
1989
26%
31%
35% $11,778
1990
25%
30%
34%
$12,566
1991
25%
30%
34%
$13,243
1992
25%
31%
34%
$14,039
1993
24%
30%
33%
$14,789
1994
25%
31%
35%
$15,168
1995
23%
29%
33%
$15,513
1996
22%
28%
32%
$15,762
1997
21%
27%
31%
$16,433
1998
19%
25%
31%
$17,124
1999 21% 26% 32% $17,670
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances and Bureau of Economic Analysis, and ISER.

State outlays have increased as a share of gross state product—value added. We can think of gross product as the tax base for the state.

Outlays as a Percentage of Gross State Product
FY
Outlays from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)
Outlays Net Dividend
Total Outlays
Gross State Product (million $)
1965
7%
15%
15%
$1,302
1966
7%
14%
14%
$1,390
1967
8%
18%
18%
$1,486
1968
9%
16%
16%
$1,693
1969
9%
15%
15%
$1,845
1970
10%
15%
15%
$2,165
1971
14%
20%
20%
$2,389
1972
15%
22%
22%
$2,613
1973
14%
20%
20%
$2,928
1974
12%
17%
17%
$3,854
1975
9%
13%
13%
$6,091
1976
9%
12%
12%
$7,615
1977
9%
12%
12%
$8,175
1978
8%
10%
10%
$11,075
1979
7%
9%
9%
$14,778
1980
8%
10%
10%
$20,276
1981
8%
9%
9%
$25,522
1982
9%
10%
12%
$25,430
1983
12%
13%
13%
$25,503
1984
12%
13%
14%
$26,494
1985
15%
16%
17%
$26,970
1986
17%
19%
21%
$18,851
1987
14%
17%
18%
$21,870
1988
13%
17%
19%
$20,160
1989 13% 16% 18% $23,332
1990
12%
15%
17%
$ 25,787
1991
14%
17%
19%
$23,947
1992
14%
17%
19%
$24,609
1993
15%
19%
21%
$23,435
1994
16%
20%
22%
$23,622
1995
14%
18%
20%
$24,790
1996
13%
17%
20%
$26,084
1997
13%
17%
20%
$25,581
1998
15%
20%
24%
$22,051
1999 - - - -
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER.

 

STATE PLUS LOCAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING

Total public (state + local government) outlays as reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce have been increasing more slowly than state-only outlays because local government budgets have been growing more slowly than the state's. Tables reporting the combined outlays will be added to this section in the near future.

Total Alaska State + Local Government Outlays
(million $)
1965
$235
1966
$251
1967
$326
1968
$333
1969
$343

1970

$408
1971
$572
1972
$698
1973
$785
1974
$843
1975
$979
1976
$1,176
1977
$1,333
1978
$1,488
1979
$1,858

1980

$2,503
1981
$2,896
1982
$3,487
1983
$4,149
1984
$4,365
1985
$4,954
1986
$5,039
1987
$5,227
1988
$5,002
1989
$5,187

1990

$5,304
1991
$5,573
1992
$5,808
1993
$6,035
1994
$6,161
1995
$6,254
1996
$6,291
1997
$6,598
1998
$6,763
1999
$7,131
2000
$7,600
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances.

 

Alaska State + Local Government Outlays—& Outlays
Net of PF Dividend

(million $)
FY
Total Outlays
Outlays Net Dividend
1965
$235
$235
1966
$251
$251
1967
$326
$326
1968
$333
$333
1969
$343
$343
1970
$408
$408
1971
$572
$572
1972
$698
$698
1973
$785
$785
1974
$843
$843
1975
$979
$979
1976
$1,176
$1,176
1977
$1,333
$1,333
1978
$1,488
$1,488
1979
$1,858
$1,858
1980
$2,503
$2,503
1981
$2,896
$2,896
1982
$3,487
$2,987
1983
$4,149
$4,085
1984
$4,365
$4,190
1985
$4,954
$4,737
1986
$5,039
$4,736
1987
$5,227
$4,836
1988
$5,002
$4,578
1989
$5,187
$4,727
1990
$5,304
$4,816
1991
$5,573
$5,083
1992
$5,808
$5,320
1993
$6,035
$5,503
1994
$6,161
$5,605
1995
$6,254
$5,689
1996
$6,291
$5,648
1997
$6,598
$5,851
1998
$6,763
$5,869
1999
$7,131
$6,087
2000
$7,600
$6,428
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER.

 

Alaska State + Local Government Outlays from Own Sources—
Net of PF Dividend & Federal Grants

(million $)
FY
Total Outlays
Outlays from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)
1965
$235
$125
1966
$251
$154
1967
$326
$179
1968
$333
$209
1969
$343
$237
1970
$408
$304
1971
$572
$422
1972
$698
$530
1973
$785
$596
1974
$843
$654
1975
$979
$745
1976
$1,176
$895
1977
$1,333
$1,059
1978
$1,488
$1,193
1979
$1,858
$1,575
1980
$2,503
$2,124
1981
$2,896
$2,502
1982
$3,487
$2,621
1983
$4,149
$3,700
1984
$4,365
$3,780
1985
$4,954
$4,340
1986
$5,039
$4,322
1987
$5,227
$4,350
1988
$5,002
$3,837
1989
$5,187
$4,125
1990
$5,304
$4,194
1991
$5,573
$4,377
1992
$5,808
$4,579
1993
$6,035
$4,479
1994
$6,161
$4,602
1995
$6,254
$4,602
1996
$6,291
$4,528
1997
$6,598
$4,641
1998
$6,763
$4,619
1999
$7,131
$4,707
2000
$7,600
$5,017
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER.

 

Alaska State + Local Government Outlays
(millions of 1998 $)
FY
Outlays from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)
Outlays Net Dividend
Total Outlays

Anchorage Consumer Price Index

1965
$507
$949
$949
36.2
1966
$607
$987
$987
37.2
1967
$684
$1,248
$1,248
38.2
1968
$782
$1,246
$1,246
39.1
1969
$853
$1,322
$1,322
40.7
1970
$1,060
$1,421
$1,421
42
1971
$1,436
$1,946
$1,946
43
1972
$1,722
$2,268
$2,268
45
1973
$1,896
$2,497
$2,497
46
1974
$1,879
$2,418
$2,418
51
1975
$1,846
$2,428
$2,428
59
1976
$2,079
$2,731
$2,731
63
1977
$2,313
$2,911
$2,911
67
1978
$2,425
$3,024
$3,024
72
1979
$2,917
$3,441
$3,441
79
1980
$3,614
$4,257
$4,257
86
1981
$3,935
$4,555
$4,555
93
1982
$3,912
$4,459
$5,205
98
1983
$5,468
$6,037
$6,132
99
1984
$5,369
$5,951
$6,199
103
1985
$5,990
$6,538
$6,838
106
1986
$5,855
$6,416
$6,827
108
1987
$5,893
$6,551
$7,080
108
1988
$5,197
$6,201
$6,776
108
1989
$5,437
$6,230
$6,837
111
1990
$5,182
$5,951
$6,554
118.4
1991
$5,172
$6,007
$6,585
123.8
1992
$5,234
$6,209
$6,767
128
1993
$4,965
$6,084
$6,673
132
1994
$4,995
$6,083
$6,686
134.8
1995
$4,862
$6,008
$6,605
138.5
1996
$4,652
$5,803
$6,464
142.4
1997
$4,699
$5,924
$6,680
144.5
1998
$4,619
$5,869
$6,763
146.3
1999
$4,656
$6,021
$7,054
147.9
2000
$4,857
$6,224
$7,359
151.1
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER.

 

Alaska State + Local Government
Per Capita Outlays
(1998 $)
 
Outlays from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)
Outlays Net Dividend
Total Outlays
Anchorage Consumer Price Index
1965
$1,910
$3,580
$3,580
36.2
1966
$2,234
$3,636
$3,636
37.2
1967
$2,463
$4,490
$4,490
38.2
1968
$2,744
$4,375
$4,375
39.1
1969
$2,896
$4,184
$4,184
40.7
1970
$3,505
$4,696
$4,696
42
1971
$4,550
$6,168
$6,168
43
1972
$5,308
$6,991
$6,991
45
1973
$5,736
$7,553
$7,553
46
1974
$5,508
$7,089
$7,089
51
1975
$4,908
$6,455
$6,455
59
1976
$5,184
$6,811
$6,811
63
1977
$5,733
$7,215
$7,215
67
1978
$5,991
$7,472
$7,472
72
1979
$7,242
$8,544
$8,544
79
1980
$8,992
$10,594
$10,594
86
1981
$9,404
$10,885
$10,885
93
1982
$8,702
$9,917
$11,577
98
1983
$11,195
$12,360
$12,554
99
1984
$10,451
$11,584
$12,068
103
1985
$11,249
$12,277
$12,841
106
1986
$10,758
$11,787
$12,543
108
1987
$10,927
$12,146
$13,128
108
1988
$9,589
$11,442
$12,503
108
1989
$9,936
$11,387
$12,495
111
1990
$9,421
$10,820
$11,915
118.4
1991
$9,351
$10,860
$11,906
123.8
1992
$8,917
$10,578
$11,528
128
1993
$8,288
$10,157
$11,142
132
1994
$8,242
$10,039
$11,034
134.8
1995
$8,049
$9,947
$10,936
138.5
1996
$7,663
$9,561
$10,649
142.4
1997
$7,767
$9,792
$11,042
144.5
1998
$7,523
$8,559
$11,014
146.3
1999
$7,510
$9,711
$11,378
147.9
2000
$7,747
$9,926
$11,736
151.1
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER.

 

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