3.4 Total State Outlays

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3. Budget History

3.4 Total State Outlays

If we want to know how much govenment is costing us or how much is actually being spent, then outlays is a better measure than appropriations. Appropriations includes not only spending but also transfers from one government account to another. U.S. Department of Commerce data shows the history of total state government outlays (appropriations that actually hit the street). (What is included in outlays?)

Here we look first at state government spending and then at state and local government spending combined.

(See also the Comparison to the U.S. average.)

STATE GOVERNMENT SPENDING

Total state government outlays as reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce have continued to grow.

Total Alaska State Government Outlays (million $)
1965	$194
1966	$194
1967	$261
1968	$273
1969	$272
1970	$329
1971	$476
1972	$566
1973	$593
1974	$651
1975	$774
1976	$944
1977	$995
1978	$1,158
1979	$1,346
1980	$1,929
1981	$2,422
1982	$3,032
1983	$3,422
1984	$3,631
1985	$4,603
1986	$3,881
1987	$4,027
1988	$3,870
1989	$4,100
1990	$ 4,284
1991	$ 4,493
1992	$ 4,788
1993	$ 4,934
1994	$ 5,256
1995	$ 5,047
1996	$ 5,105
1997	$ 5,160
1998	$ 5,230
1999	$5,572
2000	$5,972
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances.

If we net out the Permanent Fund dividend, which the federal government includes in its definition of state government outlays, we see that there was a break in the growth of state outlays in 1994 and that they have been flat since that time.

FY	Total Outlays	Outlays Net Dividend
Alaska State Government Outlays—& Outlays Net of PF Dividend (million $)
1965	$194	$194
1966	$194	$194
1967	$261	$261
1968	$273	$273
1969	$272	$272
1970	$329	$329
1971	$476	$476
1972	$566	$566
1973	$593	$593
1974	$651	$651
1975	$774	$774
1976	$944	$944
1977	$995	$995
1978	$1,158	$1,158
1979	$1,346	$1,346
1980	$1,929	$1,929
1981	$2,422	$2,422
1982	$3,032	$2,532
1983	$3,422	$3,358
1984	$3,631	$3,456
1985	$4,603	$4,386
1986	$3,881	$3,577
1987	$4,027	$3,636
1988	$3,870	$3,445
1989	$4,100	$3,640
1990	$ 4,284	$3,797
1991	$4,493	$4,004
1992	$4,788	$4,300
1993	$4,934	$4,402
1994	$5,256	$4,701
1995	$5,047	$4,482
1996	$5,105	$4,462
1997	$5,160	$4,413
1998	$5,230	$4,337
1999	$5,572	$4,526
2000	$5,972	$4,780
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER.

Furthermore, if we subtract federal grants from outlays, we see that "Outlays from Own Sources" has been growing more slowly than total outlays.

FY	Total Outlays	Outlays from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)
Alaska State Government Outlays from Own Sources— Net of PF Dividend & Federal Grants (million $)
1965	$194	$85
1966	$194	$97
1967	$261	$114
1968	$273	$159
1969	$272	$166
1970	$329	$226
1971	$476	$326
1972	$566	$398
1973	$593	$404
1974	$651	$463
1975	$774	$539
1976	$944	$663
1977	$995	$722
1978	$1,158	$863
1979	$1,346	$1,063
1980	$1,929	$1,550
1981	$2,422	$2,028
1982	$3,032	$2,166
1983	$3,422	$2,973
1984	$3,631	$3,046
1985	$4,603	$3,990
1986	$3,881	$3,163
1987	$4,027	$3,181
1988	$3,870	$2,704
1999	$4,100	$3,038
1990	$4,284	$3,174
1991	$4,493	$3,297
1992	$4,788	$3,427
1993	$4,934	$3,497
1994	$5,256	$3,781
1995	$5,047	$3,502
1996	$5,105	$3,445
1997	$5,160	$3,371
1998	$5,230	$3,257
1999	$5,572	$3,304
2000	$5,972	$3,598
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER.

If outlays in early years are converted to 1998 purchasing power (real 1998 $), we see that outlays excluding the Permanent Fund dividend have been trending downward, as have been outlays from own sources (net of the dividend and outlays financed by federal grants).

FY	Outlays from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)	Outlays Net Dividend	Total Outlays	Anchorage Consumer Price Index
Alaska State Government Outlays (millions of 1998 $)
1965	$343	$787	$787	36.2
1966	$383	$764	$764	37.2
1967	$438	$1,001	$1,001	38.2
1968	$556	$1,020	$1,020	39.1
1969	$497	$977	$977	40.7
1970	$786	$1,146	$1,146	42
1971	$1,108	$1,619	$1,619	43
1972	$1,295	$1,841	$1,841	45
1973	$1,286	$1,887	$1,887	46
1974	$1,329	$1,869	$1,869	51
1975	$1,337	$1,919	$1,919	59
1976	$1,540	$2,192	$2,192	63
1977	$1,575	$2,173	$2,173	67
1978	$1,753	$2,353	$2,353	72
1979	$1,969	$2,493	$2,493	79
1980	$2,637	$3,281	$3,281	86
1981	$3,190	$3,809	$3,809	93
1982	$3,234	$3,780	$4,526	98
1983	$4,393	$4,963	$5,057	99
1984	$4,326	$4,908	$5,157	103
1985	$5,506	$6,054	$6,354	106
1986	$4,285	$4,846	$5,257	108
1987	$4,268	$4,926	$5,455	108
1988	$3,663	$4,667	$5,242	108
1989	$4,004	$4,798	$5,405	111
1990	$ 3,922	$4,692	$5,294	118.4
1991	$ 3,897	$4,731	$5,310	123.8
1992	$ 4,031	$4,915	$5,473	128
1993	$ 3,876	$4,879	$5,468	132
1994	$ 4,104	$5,102	$5,705	134.8
1995	$ 3,699	$4,735	$5,332	138.5
1996	$ 3,539	$4,584	$5,244	142.4
1997	$ 3,413	$4,468	$5,225	144.5
1998	$ 3,257	$4,337	$5,230	146.3
1999	$3,268	$4,478	$5,512	147.9
2000	$3,484	$4,647	$5,782	-
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER.

The trend in real per capita outlays has been downward. Even including the Permanent Fund dividend, which has been increasing, real per capita outlays have been falling since the late 1980s.

	Outlays from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)	Outlays Net Dividend	Total Outlays	Anchorage Consumer Price Index
Alaska State Government Per Capita Outlays (1998 $)
1965	$1,293	$2,963	$2,963	36.2
1966	$1,411	$2,813	$2,813	37.2
1967	$1,575	$3,602	$3,602	38.2
1968	$1,950	$3,508	$3,508	39.1
1969	$2,027	$3,315	$3,315	40.7
1970	$2,596	$3,787	$3,787	42
1971	$3,512	$5,130	$5,130	43
1972	$3,992	$5,675	$5,675	45
1973	$2,890	$5,708	$5,708	46
1974	$2,898	$5,479	$5,479	51
1975	$3,554	$4,101	$4,101	59
1976	$3,841	$5,468	$5,468	63
1977	$3,905	$5,387	$5,387	67
1978	$4,332	$5,813	$5,813	72
1979	$4,888	$6,190	$6,190	79
1980	$6,563	$8,165	$8,165	86
1981	$7,622	$9,103	$9,103	93
1982	$7,192	$8,407	$10,067	98
1983	$8,995	$10,161	$10,355	99
1984	$8,421	$9,555	$10,039	103
1985	$10,341	$11,369	$11,932	106
1986	$7,873	$8,903	$9,658	108
1987	$7,915	$9,134	$10,116	108
1988	$6,759	$8,611	$9,672	108
1989	$7,318	$8,769	$9,877	111
1990	$7,131	$8,530	$9,625	118.4
1991	$7,045	$8,554	$9,600	123.8
1992	$7,084	$8,636	$9,617	128
1993	$6,607	$8,316	$9,321	132
1994	$6,876	$8,548	$9,558	134.8
1995	$6,158	$7,881	$8,875	138.5
1996	$5,882	$7,619	$8,717	142.4
1997	$5,641	$7,385	$8,635	144.5
1998	$5,305	$7,064	$8,518	146.3
1999	$5,272	$7,223	$8,890	147.9
2000	$5,556	$7,412	$9,222	-
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER.

State outlays as a share of personal income have been decreasing, although they are still much higher than at any time before the "petrodollar" boom. One line of reasoning suggests that there should be a stable relationship between public spending and personal income, reflecting a balance between public and private consumption.

	Outlays from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)	Outlays Net Dividend	Total Outlays	Personal Income (million $)
Outlays as a Percentage of Personal Income
1965	9%	21%	21%	$905
1966	10%	20%	20%	$982
1967	11%	24%	24%	$1,086
1968	13%	23%	23%	$1,182
1969	12%	19%	19%	$1,406
1970	14%	21%	21%	$1,595
1971	18%	27%	27%	$1,766
1972	21%	29%	29%	$1,939
1973	18%	26%	26%	$2,266
1974	17%	23%	23%	$2,795
1975	14%	20%	20%	$3,932
1976	14%	20%	20%	$4,736
1977	15%	20%	20%	$4,906
1978	17%	23%	23%	$5,013
1979	20%	25%	25%	$5,328
1980	26%	32%	32%	$6,002
1981	29%	35%	35%	$6,902
1982	26%	31%	37%	$8,263
1983	32%	36%	37%	$9,302
1984	31%	35%	36%	$9,958
1985	37%	41%	43%	$10,756
1986	30%	33%	36%	$10,721
1987	30%	35%	39%	$10,427
1988	25%	32%	36%	$10,773
1989	26%	31%	35%	$11,778
1990	25%	30%	34%	$12,566
1991	25%	30%	34%	$13,243
1992	25%	31%	34%	$14,039
1993	24%	30%	33%	$14,789
1994	25%	31%	35%	$15,168
1995	23%	29%	33%	$15,513
1996	22%	28%	32%	$15,762
1997	21%	27%	31%	$16,433
1998	19%	25%	31%	$17,124
1999	21%	26%	32%	$17,670
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances and Bureau of Economic Analysis, and ISER.

State outlays have increased as a share of gross state product—value added. We can think of gross product as the tax base for the state.

FY	Outlays from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)	Outlays Net Dividend	Total Outlays	Gross State Product (million $)
Outlays as a Percentage of Gross State Product
1965	7%	15%	15%	$1,302
1966	7%	14%	14%	$1,390
1967	8%	18%	18%	$1,486
1968	9%	16%	16%	$1,693
1969	9%	15%	15%	$1,845
1970	10%	15%	15%	$2,165
1971	14%	20%	20%	$2,389
1972	15%	22%	22%	$2,613
1973	14%	20%	20%	$2,928
1974	12%	17%	17%	$3,854
1975	9%	13%	13%	$6,091
1976	9%	12%	12%	$7,615
1977	9%	12%	12%	$8,175
1978	8%	10%	10%	$11,075
1979	7%	9%	9%	$14,778
1980	8%	10%	10%	$20,276
1981	8%	9%	9%	$25,522
1982	9%	10%	12%	$25,430
1983	12%	13%	13%	$25,503
1984	12%	13%	14%	$26,494
1985	15%	16%	17%	$26,970
1986	17%	19%	21%	$18,851
1987	14%	17%	18%	$21,870
1988	13%	17%	19%	$20,160
1989	13%	16%	18%	$23,332
1990	12%	15%	17%	$ 25,787
1991	14%	17%	19%	$23,947
1992	14%	17%	19%	$24,609
1993	15%	19%	21%	$23,435
1994	16%	20%	22%	$23,622
1995	14%	18%	20%	$24,790
1996	13%	17%	20%	$26,084
1997	13%	17%	20%	$25,581
1998	15%	20%	24%	$22,051
1999	-	-	-	-
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER.

STATE PLUS LOCAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING

Total public (state + local government) outlays as reported by the U.S. Department of Commerce have been increasing more slowly than state-only outlays because local government budgets have been growing more slowly than the state's. Tables reporting the combined outlays will be added to this section in the near future.

Total Alaska State + Local Government Outlays (million $)
1965	$235
1966	$251
1967	$326
1968	$333
1969	$343
1970	$408
1971	$572
1972	$698
1973	$785
1974	$843
1975	$979
1976	$1,176
1977	$1,333
1978	$1,488
1979	$1,858
1980	$2,503
1981	$2,896
1982	$3,487
1983	$4,149
1984	$4,365
1985	$4,954
1986	$5,039
1987	$5,227
1988	$5,002
1989	$5,187
1990	$5,304
1991	$5,573
1992	$5,808
1993	$6,035
1994	$6,161
1995	$6,254
1996	$6,291
1997	$6,598
1998	$6,763
1999	$7,131
2000	$7,600
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances.

FY	Total Outlays	Outlays Net Dividend
Alaska State + Local Government Outlays—& Outlays Net of PF Dividend (million $)
1965	$235	$235
1966	$251	$251
1967	$326	$326
1968	$333	$333
1969	$343	$343
1970	$408	$408
1971	$572	$572
1972	$698	$698
1973	$785	$785
1974	$843	$843
1975	$979	$979
1976	$1,176	$1,176
1977	$1,333	$1,333
1978	$1,488	$1,488
1979	$1,858	$1,858
1980	$2,503	$2,503
1981	$2,896	$2,896
1982	$3,487	$2,987
1983	$4,149	$4,085
1984	$4,365	$4,190
1985	$4,954	$4,737
1986	$5,039	$4,736
1987	$5,227	$4,836
1988	$5,002	$4,578
1989	$5,187	$4,727
1990	$5,304	$4,816
1991	$5,573	$5,083
1992	$5,808	$5,320
1993	$6,035	$5,503
1994	$6,161	$5,605
1995	$6,254	$5,689
1996	$6,291	$5,648
1997	$6,598	$5,851
1998	$6,763	$5,869
1999	$7,131	$6,087
2000	$7,600	$6,428
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER.

FY	Total Outlays	Outlays from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)
Alaska State + Local Government Outlays from Own Sources— Net of PF Dividend & Federal Grants (million $)
1965	$235	$125
1966	$251	$154
1967	$326	$179
1968	$333	$209
1969	$343	$237
1970	$408	$304
1971	$572	$422
1972	$698	$530
1973	$785	$596
1974	$843	$654
1975	$979	$745
1976	$1,176	$895
1977	$1,333	$1,059
1978	$1,488	$1,193
1979	$1,858	$1,575
1980	$2,503	$2,124
1981	$2,896	$2,502
1982	$3,487	$2,621
1983	$4,149	$3,700
1984	$4,365	$3,780
1985	$4,954	$4,340
1986	$5,039	$4,322
1987	$5,227	$4,350
1988	$5,002	$3,837
1989	$5,187	$4,125
1990	$5,304	$4,194
1991	$5,573	$4,377
1992	$5,808	$4,579
1993	$6,035	$4,479
1994	$6,161	$4,602
1995	$6,254	$4,602
1996	$6,291	$4,528
1997	$6,598	$4,641
1998	$6,763	$4,619
1999	$7,131	$4,707
2000	$7,600	$5,017
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER.

FY	Outlays from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)	Outlays Net Dividend	Total Outlays	Anchorage Consumer Price Index
Alaska State + Local Government Outlays (millions of 1998 $)
1965	$507	$949	$949	36.2
1966	$607	$987	$987	37.2
1967	$684	$1,248	$1,248	38.2
1968	$782	$1,246	$1,246	39.1
1969	$853	$1,322	$1,322	40.7
1970	$1,060	$1,421	$1,421	42
1971	$1,436	$1,946	$1,946	43
1972	$1,722	$2,268	$2,268	45
1973	$1,896	$2,497	$2,497	46
1974	$1,879	$2,418	$2,418	51
1975	$1,846	$2,428	$2,428	59
1976	$2,079	$2,731	$2,731	63
1977	$2,313	$2,911	$2,911	67
1978	$2,425	$3,024	$3,024	72
1979	$2,917	$3,441	$3,441	79
1980	$3,614	$4,257	$4,257	86
1981	$3,935	$4,555	$4,555	93
1982	$3,912	$4,459	$5,205	98
1983	$5,468	$6,037	$6,132	99
1984	$5,369	$5,951	$6,199	103
1985	$5,990	$6,538	$6,838	106
1986	$5,855	$6,416	$6,827	108
1987	$5,893	$6,551	$7,080	108
1988	$5,197	$6,201	$6,776	108
1989	$5,437	$6,230	$6,837	111
1990	$5,182	$5,951	$6,554	118.4
1991	$5,172	$6,007	$6,585	123.8
1992	$5,234	$6,209	$6,767	128
1993	$4,965	$6,084	$6,673	132
1994	$4,995	$6,083	$6,686	134.8
1995	$4,862	$6,008	$6,605	138.5
1996	$4,652	$5,803	$6,464	142.4
1997	$4,699	$5,924	$6,680	144.5
1998	$4,619	$5,869	$6,763	146.3
1999	$4,656	$6,021	$7,054	147.9
2000	$4,857	$6,224	$7,359	151.1
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER.

	Outlays from Own Sources (Net Dividend and Federal Grants)	Outlays Net Dividend	Total Outlays	Anchorage Consumer Price Index
Alaska State + Local Government Per Capita Outlays (1998 $)
1965	$1,910	$3,580	$3,580	36.2
1966	$2,234	$3,636	$3,636	37.2
1967	$2,463	$4,490	$4,490	38.2
1968	$2,744	$4,375	$4,375	39.1
1969	$2,896	$4,184	$4,184	40.7
1970	$3,505	$4,696	$4,696	42
1971	$4,550	$6,168	$6,168	43
1972	$5,308	$6,991	$6,991	45
1973	$5,736	$7,553	$7,553	46
1974	$5,508	$7,089	$7,089	51
1975	$4,908	$6,455	$6,455	59
1976	$5,184	$6,811	$6,811	63
1977	$5,733	$7,215	$7,215	67
1978	$5,991	$7,472	$7,472	72
1979	$7,242	$8,544	$8,544	79
1980	$8,992	$10,594	$10,594	86
1981	$9,404	$10,885	$10,885	93
1982	$8,702	$9,917	$11,577	98
1983	$11,195	$12,360	$12,554	99
1984	$10,451	$11,584	$12,068	103
1985	$11,249	$12,277	$12,841	106
1986	$10,758	$11,787	$12,543	108
1987	$10,927	$12,146	$13,128	108
1988	$9,589	$11,442	$12,503	108
1989	$9,936	$11,387	$12,495	111
1990	$9,421	$10,820	$11,915	118.4
1991	$9,351	$10,860	$11,906	123.8
1992	$8,917	$10,578	$11,528	128
1993	$8,288	$10,157	$11,142	132
1994	$8,242	$10,039	$11,034	134.8
1995	$8,049	$9,947	$10,936	138.5
1996	$7,663	$9,561	$10,649	142.4
1997	$7,767	$9,792	$11,042	144.5
1998	$7,523	$8,559	$11,014	146.3
1999	$7,510	$9,711	$11,378	147.9
2000	$7,747	$9,926	$11,736	151.1
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Governmental Finances, and ISER.

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