The Alaska Citizen's Guide to the Budget

ASSUMPTION NOTES

FINANCIAL RATE OF RETURN     PF 98 ANNUAL REPORT       
    AVERAGE ANNUAL TOTAL RETURN FOR ALL YEARS      16.35%
   
 BEFORE INFLATION
     
    GIVEN 50% STATUTORY LIMITATION ON EQUITIES, THE  ASSET ALLOCATION OF THE FUND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN AVERAGE  ANNUAL TOTAL RETURN OF     8.1%
    WHICH, AFTER NETTING OUT INFLATION, IS     4.7%
    THIS TARGET IS MODEST BUT REALISTIC CONSIDERING HISTORICAL  MARKET RETURNS AND THE CEILING ON EQUITIES     
OIL REVENUES ANNUAL CHANGE SINCE PRODUCTION PEAKED IN 1988       
    PRODUCTION       -4.0%
    REAL PRICE       -2.0%
    REAL REVENUES (EXCLUDING SETTLEMENTS)    -6.0%
INFLATION (CPI-W) ALTHOUGH THE INFLATION RATE HAS LAGGED THE US AVERAGE OVER THE LAST 20 YEARS, THE RATES HAVE BEEN ALMOST IDENTICAL IN THE LAST 10 YEARS 
     
ALASKA
US
   
  AVG 79-88   3.3% 4.7%    
  AVG 89-98   3.0% 2.9%    
  AVG 79-98   3.0% 3.8%    
POPULATION AVG 79-88   3.6%      
  AVG 89-98   1.4%      
  AVG 79-98   2.0%      
  DOR POPULATION GROWTH PROJECTION FALL 1998     1.1%  
    ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH THRU 2025     
NON-OIL GF REVENUES REAL ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 1980 TO 1998    1.0%  
    EXCLUDING GF INTEREST     
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Page updated September 10, 2003

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