| FINANCIAL
RATE OF RETURN |
|
PF 98 ANNUAL REPORT |
|
|
|
| |
|
AVERAGE ANNUAL TOTAL RETURN
FOR ALL YEARS |
|
|
16.35% |
| |
|
BEFORE INFLATION
|
|
|
|
| |
|
GIVEN 50% STATUTORY LIMITATION
ON EQUITIES, THE ASSET ALLOCATION OF THE FUND IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE AN AVERAGE ANNUAL TOTAL RETURN OF |
|
8.1% |
| |
|
WHICH, AFTER NETTING OUT
INFLATION, IS |
|
4.7% |
| |
|
THIS TARGET IS MODEST BUT
REALISTIC CONSIDERING HISTORICAL MARKET RETURNS AND
THE CEILING ON EQUITIES |
|
| OIL REVENUES |
ANNUAL CHANGE SINCE PRODUCTION
PEAKED IN 1988 |
|
|
| |
|
PRODUCTION |
|
|
|
-4.0% |
| |
|
REAL PRICE |
|
|
|
-2.0% |
| |
|
REAL REVENUES (EXCLUDING
SETTLEMENTS) |
-6.0% |
| INFLATION
(CPI-W) |
ALTHOUGH THE INFLATION
RATE HAS LAGGED THE US AVERAGE OVER THE LAST 20 YEARS, THE RATES
HAVE BEEN ALMOST IDENTICAL IN THE LAST 10 YEARS |
| |
|
|
ALASKA
|
US
|
|
|
| |
AVG 79-88 |
|
3.3% |
4.7% |
|
|
| |
AVG 89-98 |
|
3.0% |
2.9% |
|
|
| |
AVG 79-98 |
|
3.0% |
3.8% |
|
|
| POPULATION |
AVG 79-88 |
|
3.6% |
|
|
|
| |
AVG 89-98 |
|
1.4% |
|
|
|
| |
AVG 79-98 |
|
2.0% |
|
|
|
| |
DOR POPULATION GROWTH PROJECTION
FALL 1998 |
|
1.1% |
|
| |
|
ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH THRU
2025 |
|
| NON-OIL GF REVENUES |
REAL ANNUAL
GROWTH RATE 1980 TO 1998 |
1.0% |
|
| |
|
EXCLUDING GF INTEREST |
|